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The Bitcoin halving cycle explained
What the Bitcoin halving is, past halving dates and block rewards, when the next one is expected, and what it does and does not mean for price.
By Hodlia.fi editorial team · · 4 min readKey takeaways
- The halving cuts the new-bitcoin subsidy per block by 50% every 210,000 blocks.
- It happens roughly every four years; the fifth is expected around 2028.
- Transaction fees are not halved, so fees become a bigger share of miner income over time.
- Total supply approaches 21 million coins.
- Past rallies after halvings are a small sample, not a guarantee.
Every 210,000 blocks, the number of new bitcoins created per block is cut in half. This event is called the halving. It is written into Bitcoin’s code and is one of the most discussed events in crypto.
What exactly is halved?
Miners who add a new block to the Bitcoin blockchain receive a block subsidy (new coins) plus transaction fees. The halving cuts the subsidy in half. Transaction fees are not affected.
Because blocks are produced roughly every 10 minutes on average, 210,000 blocks take about four years. That is where the “four-year cycle” comes from.
Past halvings
| Halving | Block height | Date | Subsidy after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | 0 | January 2009 | 50 BTC |
| 1st | 210,000 | 28 November 2012 | 25 BTC |
| 2nd | 420,000 | 9 July 2016 | 12.5 BTC |
| 3rd | 630,000 | 11 May 2020 | 6.25 BTC |
| 4th | 840,000 | 20 April 2024 | 3.125 BTC |
| 5th (expected) | 1,050,000 | around 2028 | 1.5625 BTC |
The next halving does not have a fixed calendar date. It happens at block 1,050,000, and its date depends on how fast blocks are actually mined. Estimates point to the first half of 2028.
Why Bitcoin has halvings
The halving schedule makes Bitcoin’s supply predictable and limited. The sum of all subsidies approaches 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s maximum supply. The last fraction of a bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140. After that, miners will rely only on transaction fees.
Halvings and price
Halvings are often linked to Bitcoin bull markets, because strong price rallies followed the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings within roughly a year or so. Two cautions:
- A handful of data points. Four halvings are not enough to prove a pattern, and many other factors moved prices in those years (adoption, interest rates, ETFs, regulation).
- The schedule is public. Every market participant knows when the halving will happen, so some of the effect may already be priced in.
The halving reduces the flow of new coins that miners may sell. Whether that moves the price depends on demand. It is a supply event, not a guarantee.
What it means for miners
Miners’ revenue in bitcoin drops by half overnight. Less efficient miners may become unprofitable and shut down, which can temporarily lower the hash rate. The network then adjusts mining difficulty about every 2,016 blocks so that block times return to around 10 minutes.
The shrinking inflation rate
After the 2024 halving, around 450 new bitcoins are created per day (3.125 × about 144 blocks). Bitcoin’s annual supply growth fell below 1% for the first time. Each halving cuts it again.
Halving vs stock-to-flow
You may see the “stock-to-flow” model used to predict prices based on halvings. It is a contested model, and its past predictions have not held up consistently. Treat any precise price target based on the halving with caution.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Treating the halving as a fixed calendar date instead of a block height.
- Assuming the price must rise because it did after earlier halvings.
- Ignoring that the halving schedule is public and may already be priced in.
- Confusing the halving with a stock split; nobody’s coins are cut in half.
Bottom line
The Bitcoin halving is a predictable, programmed cut in new supply that happens about every four years. It is central to Bitcoin’s scarcity, but its effect on price is debated and not guaranteed. See the live Bitcoin page, compare BTC vs gold or read what is Bitcoin.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
At block 1,050,000, expected around the first half of 2028. The exact date depends on block production speed.
What was the block reward after the 2024 halving?
3.125 BTC per block, down from 6.25 BTC.
Does the halving always make Bitcoin go up?
No. Past halvings were followed by rallies, but there are only four data points and many other factors affect price.
What happens when all bitcoins are mined?
Miners will be paid only through transaction fees. The last fraction of a bitcoin is expected around the year 2140.
Does the halving affect coins I already own?
No. It only reduces how many new coins miners receive per block. Existing balances are unchanged.
How many bitcoins are left to mine?
Most of the 21 million have already been mined; the remainder is released ever more slowly until around 2140.
Sources
- Bitcoin whitepaper (Satoshi Nakamoto)
- Bitcoin Wiki: Controlled supply
- Bitcoin Core source: GetBlockSubsidy (halving interval)
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